Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 2.311524 2.446423 2.593248 2.766576 2.967887 3.197366 3.483451
2025-09-14 2.111516 2.270998 2.451289 2.673855 2.946839 3.279188 3.729634
2025-09-21 2.013145 2.191801 2.399786 2.665971 3.007917 3.449737 4.099775
2025-09-28 1.916808 2.104002 2.326304 2.618076 3.005723 3.529930 4.355211
2025-10-05 1.884664 2.088861 2.337233 2.673568 3.140190 3.811370 4.978622
2025-10-12 1.867940 2.089953 2.366457 2.753010 3.314604 4.180991 5.889845
2025-10-19 1.817376 2.044762 2.331997 2.741485 3.354123 4.344910 6.492290
2025-10-26 1.778808 2.012306 2.311400 2.746254 3.416879 4.558261 7.326972
2025-11-02 1.723120 1.954902 2.253997 2.693466 3.382600 4.590173 7.732491
2025-11-09 1.683811 1.917072 2.220844 2.673135 3.397642 4.716969 8.513151
2025-11-16 1.649702 1.884556 2.193086 2.658385 3.419561 4.861317 9.511473
2025-11-23 1.617065 1.852652 2.164508 2.640161 3.433096 4.991036 10.650874
2025-11-30 1.596204 1.836795 2.158974 2.658985 3.517676 5.309849 13.529516
2025-12-07 1.544063 1.777025 2.089096 2.573670 3.406602 5.148301 13.202547
2025-12-14 1.519251 1.753476 2.069624 2.566236 3.437338 5.339503 16.199237
2025-12-21 1.484789 1.715738 2.028447 2.522051 3.395380 5.338990 17.712898
2025-12-28 1.480634 1.719147 2.046254 2.572968 3.539190 5.876822 36.633787
2026-01-04 1.482530 1.730768 2.076257 2.645738 3.737514 6.691129 NaN
2026-01-11 1.461600 1.709843 2.057269 2.635121 3.762474 6.961596 NaN
2026-01-18 1.445712 1.695498 2.047474 2.639443 3.820028 7.389619 NaN
2026-01-25 1.416969 1.662303 2.008299 2.591020 3.756396 7.309344 NaN
2026-02-01 1.397064 1.641185 1.986754 2.572333 3.757984 7.511624 NaN
2026-02-08 1.379341 1.622738 1.968667 2.558767 3.769886 7.772751 NaN